Re-opening Trends: What are you seeing?

[jfuhrmad]

I sold a set of aftermarket wheels and tires to a customer yesterday.  When I picked the wheels up the warehouse loading dock was packed.  I've never seen it so full in the past 3 years.  There were 3 other customers at the dock waiting to pick up wheels, which I've never seen before.  Usually it's just me, or maybe one guy waiting for me to leave the dock.  All of the sales staff was on the phone at the same time and I had to wait in line which has never happened to me before.  Typically, there are at least 2 guys that I can stroll up to and chat with.  When I walked into the warehouse to pick up my wheels, I talked to the warehouse staff and they said this week it is back to normal.

Is anyone else seeing an uptick yet?  We should start reporting upticks on this thread so that we can see how it spreads across the nation.  That way we can be prepared to bring staff back asap and get our marketing rolling again.  I know it takes 2 weeks between when I order postcards and they land.

Let's help each other get ahead of this thing.

[bantar]

I've stayed open and at least one day per week, I would see a spike in car count and I was hoping that it was an indicator, but then the next day, right back down.  Nothing consistent, since about March 15.   Running about 41% of normal car count, but total revenue is lower than that.    This week, we've been consistently up.... about 57% of normal car count.  But I'm now gun-shy and not sure whether or not this is a sign.    Next Friday, Texas is starting to open up.   I doubt that this soft opening will help much.  We need to fully open up and get people back to work.

 

[JimO]

I am in NJ and close to New York City. Our area was hit hard and although nothing is definite I assume we will be following NY and stay restricted until the middle of May. I have a gas station with gas, diesel and repair work. The gas/diesel volume has been terrible with just a slight rise this past week. Everyone is getting stir crazy and the great American pastime of taking a drive is all we have. With the weather warming all of the landscapers are out in force needing gas and diesel. Other than that we have seen very little change.

[jfuhrmad]

To summarize we have an uptick in Minnesota, an uptick in Texas and an uptick in New York city.  It's slight and a bit early but there seems to be a a pattern developing.  Can anyone else comment on what whether they've seen an uptick in the last week or so?  It would be nice to have a few other data inputs.

[dfrisby]

This last week in northern Minnesota surely picked up for our shop. Not to levels of last year same time, but way better than last week. Now trying to hire another tech, but that's proving difficult even with the high unemployment rate. 

 

[jfuhrmad]

Thanks dfrisby.  Good to hear northern MN is picking up too.  We are 4 for 4 on shops that saw an uptick last week.  Anyone else seeing this?  It appears to be happening across the country.  I still think we need a few other to chime in before we run with the results as being a trend.

[Joe Marconi]

Premium Member Content 

This content is hidden to guests, one of the benefits of a paid membership. Please login or register to view this content.

[bantar]

Two weeks in a row of an increase.   Went from 41% for about 4 weeks, to 57% last week, to 63% this week of normal.    Regular street traffic is up.   I found myself being frustrated having to share the road with other commuters, but then realized that it was actually a good thing.  

I listened to the DFW Radio show, Wheels, and all of the car dealers on today's show were reporting increases in traffic.   Mind you, many of these same dealers laid off many technicians.  Here it seems that car sales have been doing ok for being down (they do state numbers sold on this show).   However, they were noting that the used car market was upside down due to a weak auction scene, so some mentioned that they were sitting on trade-ins waiting for a chance to unload them.   Of course, couple this with Texas starting a limited restart yesterday.   Dallas car dealers are by appointment only and in our county, they were not required to shut down.

We do have 1 nail salon in Dallas open defying Dallas' shutdown order.  We do have one suburb city, Colleyville, that opened restaurants with social distancing (this city is in compliance).   

On a brighter note, I had one lady spend her $1200 stimulus check and a bit more on a long-overdue timing belt and repairs.   We were appreciative of being stimulated.

[Joe Marconi]

Premium Member Content 

This content is hidden to guests, one of the benefits of a paid membership. Please login or register to view this content.

[jfuhrmad]

Nice.  It seems we are seeing a trend.  I went ahead and dumped some dough into marketing last week because it seems like it’s picking up.  It’s good to see confirmation of that.  I know we had one day last week where the phone wouldn’t stop ringing.  Still down, but picking up a bit.

[bantar]

First the good news....   We went to Plucker's for wings last night and were able to dine in the restaurant!   Was nice.   25% occupancy allowed, was full, but no line, so this says that many are still waiting a bit more.

Now, the great news!   Another week of car count increase.   Week by week actuals (percentage of expected):

• 3/15: 63%
• 3/22: 39%
• 3/29: 42%
• 4/05: 37%
• 4/12: 57%
• 4/19: 63%
• 4/26: 85%
• Car Count for March was 67%, as it started off strong, then nose dived
• Car Count for April ended up at 55%

Revenue remains weaker percentage wise than car count as the jobs are not the best of the litter (not a usual sales mix).   Also, Texas has reopened for business 25% occupancy for non-essential.   I have one person furloughed that I need to rehire.   This week trend is giving me confidence that it's time, but may still wait a few more days.  

 

[jfuhrmad]

Wow!  That’s great to hear.  I’m down about 20%...but the Oreillys store in m town (not by my shop) was only down 15% last week for his professional sales. He said it’s really come back nicely.

So we have Minnesota and Texas that are 80-85% of normal.  Anyone else want to report?  Is the rest of the country coming back too?

[dfrisby]

In northern minnesota I'm about 10% higher than this week last year. Our shop does almost everything land based that fits in the door, so ATV service has been huge since it's a socially distancing activity available to my customers.  Auto is also slightly above last year for the last 2 weeks in dollars, but not car count. my average repair order is higher also I think partly due to the stimulus and bloated unemployment checks.  Since the mines in our area are shutting down, I'm not sure how long it will last, but we had to hire another tech for now and that makes me feel alot better than I did 3 weeks ago.

 

[Joe Marconi]

Premium Member Content 

This content is hidden to guests, one of the benefits of a paid membership. Please login or register to view this content.

[jfuhrmad]

27 minutes ago, Joe Marconi said:

As the weeks pass, we are seeing different trends around the nation.  Many shops have little to no impact from COVID-19, some are down 40 to 60% and some are nearly out of business.  New York is rebouding slowly.  Traffic is up and many businesses are gearing up to opening soon.  Only time will tell the full impact of the crisis.  

For my business, I have made the economic adjustments, I will "wisely" use the PPP money and I look forward to the future success of my business.  While there will be many lessons learned from this crisis; the most important lesson is to never forget that the shop owner's mind-set will dictate the shop's future.  Stay positive, boost morale and be a strong leader. 

How far are you guys down?  The only visibility I have so to bantar and dfrisby and my vendors.  So it looks like Minnesota (still with stay-at-home in place and Texas (just prior to removing stay-at-home) were only down 15-20%.  Please provide your numbers and any other numbers from “around the country” with more specific info so we can keep an eye on what’s happening.  Thanks!

[jfuhrmad]

27 minutes ago, Joe Marconi said:

As the weeks pass, we are seeing different trends around the nation.  Many shops have little to no impact from COVID-19, some are down 40 to 60% and some are nearly out of business.  New York is rebouding slowly.  Traffic is up and many businesses are gearing up to opening soon.  Only time will tell the full impact of the crisis.  

For my business, I have made the economic adjustments, I will "wisely" use the PPP money and I look forward to the future success of my business.  While there will be many lessons learned from this crisis; the most important lesson is to never forget that the shop owner's mind-set will dictate the shop's future.  Stay positive, boost morale and be a strong leader. 

How far are you guys down?  The only visibility I have so to bantar and dfrisby and my vendors.  So it looks like Minnesota (still with stay-at-home in place and Texas (just prior to removing stay-at-home) were only down 15-20%.  Please provide your numbers and any other numbers from “around the country” with more specific info so we can keep an eye on what’s happening.  Thanks!

[Joe Marconi]

Premium Member Content 

This content is hidden to guests, one of the benefits of a paid membership. Please login or register to view this content.

[jfuhrmad]

Wow!  So you guys are actually down more than a week ago when you were 40% down (compared to 45% last week).  People in NY must be much more reluctant to head out.

[Joe Marconi]

Premium Member Content 

This content is hidden to guests, one of the benefits of a paid membership. Please login or register to view this content.

[jfuhrmad]

So, were the 40% and the 45% calculated the same way?  I like how bantar does it where he compares actual car count to what is expected.

[JimO]

Repairs are down 50-55% but techs coming to work are down 50% so that has been self regulating and to a greater degree acceptable and appreciated considering the circumstances. Gas volume is down 70% due to reduced traffic and reduced operating hours. My gas island staff is reduced down to one full time and two part time workers so trying to remain open 16 hours every day is impossible. If I had enough staffing to be open normal hours I would expect our gas volume to increase about 15-20 points. I am in Bergen County, New Jersey and the death toll for my county exceeds statewide rates for 38 states in the country. I can certainly understand why states like Wyoming, North Dakota, Montana and so many other states want to get back to work but that does not seem to be the case here. My customers tell me that they are tired of sheltering in place but fear overpowers boredom. I expect to see New York and New Jersey both lag behind the rest of the country concerning bouncing back. Every day is a precious gift and every week that passes brings improvements which renews our faith along with new challenges that continue to test us. We will succeed, maybe not on the same time table as the rest of the country but we will get there.

[alfredauto]

I've been working by myself since this all started. My main tech has underlying health issues so he's collecting and happy and I'm busy as a bee doing repair work.  The auctions aren't running normally so the car sales are in the tank I literally have one vehicle on the lot for sale. 

[bantar]

Well, the euphoric rise has ceased.  We dropped a bit this week.   It's staying steady and cars on the road are increasing daily.   Local car dealers are reporting good new car sales and are worrying about running out of inventory.  This week they also reported a resumption of sales of used cars, when previously, it was dead.

• 4/19: 63%
• 4/26: 85%
• 5/03: 73%

 

[dfrisby]

We are holding steady and scheculed about 8 days out right now. The surge of new jobs may have dropped a little, but the ARO on the jobs coming in seems higher than normal. Hoping it holds out long enough to save up for a long dead winter, just in case.

 

[DAC]

Michigan order has been delayed until the end of May, I'm not convinced it won't go into the middle or end of June. We're closed, but I'm in the office fielding calls in hopes of business. people just aren't coming out. We are in a small town in SW Michigan. I'm getting calls for oil changes and tire repairs, but I can't really call mechanics in for work that has such a minimal profit margin. I will end up costing me money in the long run. I'm considering opening up one or two days a week to see how it goes. I'm a female operator and not a mechanic myself so I can't do the work without my mechanics. I honestly don't know what to do at this point. Of course with the UIA and PUA, laid off employees are getting paid more than they would working full time, they have no reason to even want to come back to work. Any input is welcomed.

[Hands On]

Things in Longmont Colorado seem to revolve around the number of cars on the road during rush our, and those have not returned to anything close to normal yet. School is not going to re open this year which is cutting back on a lot of driving around here.